Markets, execution, and turning a signal into a trade that survives costs.
A maturity-aware graph model turns a tiny forecasting edge into a smooth, near-market-neutral return stream from commodity calendar spreads — correlation with the S&P 500 of about minus two-hundredths.
arXiv:2606.25811
In fast markets a mid-price signal decays in microseconds, so latency is part of the strategy — not an implementation detail. "Best model" is meaningless without a time budget.
arXiv:2606.25986
Prediction is turning into a commodity. The value is migrating to everything around it — calibration, execution, reusable representations, and the decision a forecast is actually meant to serve.
6 papers
Point a pretrained time-series model at the stock market and it wins almost every contest. Look closer and the gaps are a fraction of a single bit — a ranking victory that carries no edge you could trade.
arXiv:2606.27100
Neural networks can beat the decades-old workhorses of bond forecasting — but this study insists on the harder test, asking whether a better forecast actually makes a better trade.
arXiv:2606.26815
A machine-learning system can be genuinely right about Bitcoin's next move and still lose almost everything — because the cost of acting on each small correct call exceeds the call itself.
arXiv:2606.00060