Why forecasts are becoming decision systems
Prediction is turning into a commodity. The value is migrating to everything around it — calibration, execution, reusable representations, and the decision a forecast is actually meant to serve.
6 papers
Forecasting
Time series, baselines, and the craft of predicting what comes next.
Forecast the easy bits, deal the rest downward
A retailer may need a billion product-by-store forecasts a week. This method predicts only the smooth 0.3% of them, then splits the rest with loaded dice so everything adds up.
arXiv:2606.26774
The one-line model that beats the Transformers
A line of algebra can match forecasting architectures thousands of times its size — if you stop scaling the model and start tuning the preprocessing nobody bothers to touch.
arXiv:2606.27282
The self-driving car that cried wolf
A popular way of training trajectory predictors quietly corrupts the probabilities a self-driving planner relies on. The fix needs no retraining — just a clearer view of what went wrong.
arXiv:2606.26424